Total return vs price return: where returns really come from
The S&P number on the news ignores dividends. Since 1960, ~85% of the index's total return came from reinvested dividends — which is why holding beats trading.
When the news says "the S&P 500 rose 8% this year," it's almost always quoting the price return — the change in the index level, with dividends ignored entirely. That leaves out a huge part of how stocks actually pay you, because a share doesn't just (hopefully) rise in price; it also hands you cash along the way. Whether you count that cash, and whether you reinvest it, turns out to be one of the biggest forks in long-term investing. The three versions of "return" you'll see quoted are how the industry keeps track of it.
Price return, total return, net return — what's the difference?
They differ only in how they treat dividends. Price return counts the change in share prices alone, as if dividends didn't exist. Total return assumes every dividend is reinvested back into the index, pre-tax — the truest picture of what a long-term owner earned. Net return goes one step further and subtracts the tax withheld from dividends before reinvesting, which is closer to what many investors actually keep.
How much do dividends actually add?
Far more than the modest yield suggests, because reinvested dividends compound. Since 1960, roughly 85% of the S&P 500's cumulative total return has been attributed to reinvested dividends and the compounding on them; measured as a share of return each year it averages around a third since 1940. Put concretely, over the 30 years to 2024 the total-return index roughly doubled the final wealth of the price-return index. A 2% dividend sounds trivial next to price swings — but 2% reinvested every year, compounding for decades, is the quiet majority of the result.
Where do taxes come in?
Wherever cash actually changes hands. Dividends are taxed, which is what the net-return figure captures — the withholding taken out before the rest is reinvested. And there's a second, self-inflicted tax: every time you sell at a gain in a taxable account, you hand over a slice of that gain, and the slice you paid can no longer compound for you. The gross total return you see quoted is a pre-tax number; your after-tax result depends heavily on how much you trade.
Why this is really an argument for holding
Because dividends and gains only compound if you leave them alone. Reinvesting dividends and letting positions run keeps the whole balance working — my portfolio's performance curve is a total-return record in exactly this sense, dividends included and positions left to run for years. Frequent trading crystallises taxes, resets the compounding, and quietly moves you from the total-return line toward something worse. This is the same mechanism from the other direction as in compounding: recurring drags multiply just as returns do. The practical takeaway is the boring one — reinvest, hold, and stop interrupting the engine, a habit built into how to start investing.
This is written by someone investing real money in public. See the live portfolio · How copying works